MAP: Earthstar Geographics | Source: Esri, Nasa - Visible Earth
The planet today and tomorrow
Humanity continues to grow. From now 7.8 to 8.6 billion by 2030 and to almost 10 billion by 2050.
The global number of urban dwellers will increase by around one billion to 5.2 billion by 2030. We are moving into a time in which cities are more important than states. And supply chains are a more important source of power than armaments.
So the real world map should not represent states, but megacities, transport routes, supply routes, energy routes, data routes, technical support and other symbols of our emerging global network civilization.
In 2025 there will be forty megacities, each with more than ten million inhabitants, some of which will form megacity clusters. China is in the process of reorganizing to create two dozen gigantic megacity clusters of up to 100 million citizens each.
The supply chain war
Highly complex infrastructures are essential to master these developments. Much of this will have to be realized away from the cities, in areas that may be uninhabitable and that are not yet connected to transport routes. Moreover, climate change is exacerbating the drama of this scenario. Secure supply requires rapid technical support. Material and human transportation, from and to anywhere, in many cases necessarily in the shortest possible time. Also to prevent disasters.
Whoever controls the supply chains controls the world order.
Today, many of the largest developing countries are far more fragmented than it appears on a world map. Because they lack the necessary infrastructure! Only four of them - Brazil, Indonesia, Nigeria and India - represent about two billion people. And yet each individual country contributes far less than the sum of its parts. Because many of its regions are barely interconnected.
Connectivity is the key to recovery!
The USA, China, India, Brazil, Russia, Turkey, Nigeria, Indonesia, Bangladesh and Pakistan - the ten most populous countries in the world - are also the most unequal countries. What is meant is unlimited access to qualified education, good health care systems, flexible labor markets combined with progressive labor protection laws and broad access to capital, which is often not accessible.
China has more neighbors than any other country in the world. This makes it easier to re-create a new civilizing empire, especially under the current political system. The new Silk Road is only one of the global projects. But: According to the Second Law of Thermodynamics, all systems also tend towards maximum entropy.
Connectivity has become the foundation of global society.
But the global order is no longer something that can only (or even: no longer) be decided and controlled top down. Decentralization is one of its most important prerequisites for creating the appropriate functionality. This, in turn, can only succeed through connectivity.
Decentralization is also proving to be an extremely important driving force for the global stabilization of democracy. Democracy prioritizes elections, while decentralization sets the limits for political stability.
Today, more than 1.5 billion of Asia's 4 billion people live within a belt of 100 kilometers of the Indian or Pacific Ocean, where rising sea levels will flood existing coastal barriers. Egypt, Nigeria, Thailand, Bangladesh, Vietnam, the Netherlands, India, China and the USA are also affected. Large parts of the population, where living conditions are permanently deteriorating, will go on migration.
Location, location, location! In the future, the world will be divided into habitable and uninhabitable zones.
The complexity outlook index ranks countries according to their potential for improving productive capabilities.
Canada, Brazil, India and China are among the countries that could benefit most from increasing trade with partners whose technologies and other know-how increase the complexity of their own products and exports. Southeast Asia, Eastern European countries and others in Central and South America, Africa and Australia are among them.
Countries most likely to achieve high growth rates by the mid-2020s based on improvements in the productive capabilities embedded in their exports are India, Southeast Asia, Africa and Central and South America.
The Quintessence of Connectivity
There is only one law, which has accompanied us since the hunter's time and will be the best guideline into the future:
Everything follows supply and demand! - Of course, under consideration of the ecology.
Current wins over friction. Supply connects with demand. The moment triumphs over inertia.
Design in nature: maximize flow!
(with thoughts from Parag Khanna)
The Quintessence of the ETHICS Drive
Flight systems with ETHICS VTOL lift drives optimally support the processes of the new connectivity to be established worldwide. Wherever infrastructure is missing or has been destroyed. Or is not suitable for runway-bound aircraft. Flow prevails over friction - a valid principle also in the technical project planning of ETHICS drives. Contactless transfer of the power generated in the primary turbine as fluid to the lift rotor. And uncompromising conversion of the generated forces into lift thrust without transformation of the energy into other forms of energy such as mechanics or electricity.
No losses - the overriding principle.
The ETHICS Market
In this context, the demands on future air traffic will be the rapid accessibility of destinations with little or no mobility ecosystems, i.e. where infrastructure such as a runway is lacking or where space for a conventional runway is not available. - Besides the introduction of "green fuels" and further noise reduction.
Megacity hotspots will also face more stringent requirements.
Volcanic eruptions, electromagnetic pulses can keep conventional aircraft on the ground. They depend on airfields and are thus possibly blocked by ash flight. The landing point for VTOL aircraft remains variable.
ETHICS requires only one take-off/landing point and no runway:
A field, a jungle clearing, an offshore drilling platform, a ship, a high-rise roof for rescue operations in case of crisis, a township, an ice rink - or an infinite water surface - in the case of hovering operations - is sufficient.
So ETHICS is not just about urban mobility in the sense of air cab operations. In the urban context it is about intercity mobility. In other words, the connection between cities and megacity hotspots, as well as countries.
ETHICS aircraft are in a higher performance and size class and therefore not air cabs.